Is it time to pull out the big guns against climate change? And yes, that means literally shooting at the sky.
In this essay, we’ll be talking about:
* How we might need climate engineering?
* Why is this a problem?
* And what does it mean for each individual?
First of all, this is not a doomsday essay. I don’t think climate change is hopeless. Yes, unchecked climate change will kill us all, but all of the major technical inventions are done to combat CO2, and we have thousands of smart people to tweak them to perfection. So, there is a solution, and if we act smart, we may get off with a slap on the wrist. Or is it hopeless? Because our survival as a species depends on the answer to this one big question:
Who will pay for this?
But let’s start at the beginning.
How might we need climate engineering?
Climate change is a very big and controversial topic, so to save time, let’s work with some assumptions.
1. Climate change is real. If you can’t believe that humanity wouldn’t pollute forests, rivers, cities, or the atmosphere as a whole just to make a quick buck, I don’t know what to tell you.
2. Climate change is a problem. Every time the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has gone over 300 parts per million (ppm), something bad has happened in the history of Earth’s climate. We are now at around 420 ppm. By 2050, we could reach 550 ppm, triggering several “tripwires” or irreversible catastrophes on the way. Climate scientists are very concerned about this, or to put it in normal speech, they’re scared shitless.
3. Climate change is about money. Our way of life, the rapid explosion of the human species, every social and technological advantage of the last century can be traced back to having coal or oil and doing something interesting with the energy from coal or oil. So, climate change is about the complete rebuild of our energy foundation and the social changes that come with it.
The good:
Solar panels have become incredibly cheap over the last 10 years and will become even cheaper. The reason is that China is producing over 2.5 times the capacity of solar panels installed worldwide each year. Many experts didn’t see that coming. And now, the USA and EU have to face the question: should we rely on China for panels or substitute panel production to be more independent? The USA has already taken the step, and the EU will likely follow, which will make solar panels even cheaper. Now with solar panels combined with batteries, way more affordable than oil and coal, you don’t have to ban Fossil fuel anymore; they’re becoming economically obsolete.
The bad:
It might be a little too late. Yes, solar is cheaper now, but it’s not convenient enough. For example, many EV owners want to switch back to gas-powered cars because the charging infrastructure is too bad. Many battery types rely on rare earths, which is a scaling problem. There just aren’t enough rare earths. New types of batteries are on the horizon, but they’re not quite here yet. On top of that, governments often set the wrong incentives. Big Oil, knowing they’re dying, lobbies like crazy to delay the inevitable. There are also surrounding industries like oil shipping who stand to lose a significant customer. Oil, gas, and coal made up 35% of worldwide shipping volume in 2022. And the list of problems goes on, you get the picture.
It seems that we’re already entered the 6th global mass extinction, and the frequency and intensity of storms and floods are starting to grow, making it nearly impossible to get natural hazard insurance in some parts of the world.
So, climate engineering is here to save the day.
There’s also controversy over what exactly counts as climate engineering and what doesn’t. I want to concentrate on two forms: Direct Carbon Removal (DCR) and Solar Radiation Management (SRM).
Direct Carbon Removal means capturing CO2 out of the air and storing it somewhere, taking it out of the CO2 cycle. Solar Radiation Management is the process of injecting the atmosphere with, for example, sulfur dioxide to reflect radiation from the sun, cooling down the planet, in very simple terms.
If we ever want to go back to under 300 ppm CO2 and save humanity, we have to do Direct Carbon Removal, and Solar Radiation Management could buy us the time to do so.
So, where are the problems?
1. We don’t know the consequences.
DCR is risky because we’ve never captured so much CO2 out of the atmosphere and tried to store it somewhere. Possible solutions include minerals that would react with the CO2 or just pump it underground in suitable formations and hope for the best. If you store CO2 underground, you should know what you’re doing. The Lake Nyos disaster shows what happens if a big CO2 cloud is released from underground without warning.
Solar Radiation Management works by injecting chemicals like sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, which could create a new ozone hole in the process, this time over the equator. Also say hallo again to acid rain.
The second problem is, there’s no consensus.
Maybe it’s not a bad thing if Sweden becomes a little warmer, but this will have bad consequences for the Philippines. Who decides on a global scale? That is politics in its purest form.
The third problem is, it’s a band-aid, especially Solar Radiation Management. Solar Radiation Management may cool down the atmosphere, but it won’t stop ocean acidification. And if you start with the treatment, you better not stop till you solve the real problem or you’ll have real bad temperature jumps.
And the last problem, Solar Radiation Management is cheap. And yes, that’s a bad thing.
And here we finally talk about the old Soviet artillery, so many nations have lying around. There are estimates that Solar Radiation Management for the whole planet is only costing a few billion dollars. In fact, you need the chemical and a way to scatter it in the air. Airplanes would be preferred, but if you only want to change the weather a little locally, some artillery shells would do the trick.
So, what does it mean for each individual?
There’s a good chance that energy will become practically free, thanks to solar panels. On the other hand, we’ll have to pay for the Direct Carbon Removal, let’s see how that will play out. Climate engineering may become a strong talking point in politics and economy. So get ready for half trues, missinformation and blant lies about the costs. And I would suggest a lot of sunscreen.
Quellen:
China solar industry faces shakeout, but rock-bottom prices to persist (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-solar-industry-faces-shakeout-rock-bottom-prices-persist-2024-04-03/)
The solar rush (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-18/survey-of-the-worlds-solar-shows-global-boom/104006096)
Many early-adopting EV owners around the world want to gas up again (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/ev-owners-want-to-buy-gas-cars-again.html)
Nissan, NASA aim to ditch rare, pricey metals in solid-state batteries(https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/04/nissan-nasa-aim-to-ditch-rare-pricey-metals-in-solid-state-batteries/)
Critical Minerals in Electric Vehicle Batteries (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47227)
Solid-state batteries: Potential and challenges on the way to the mass market
(https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/en/blog/themen/batterie-update/feststoffbatterien-markt-potenziale-herausforderungen-materialien-komponenten-zellkonzepte.html)
What lobbying footprint does Big Oil have on EU climate policy? (https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/09/26/what-lobbying-footprint-does-big-oil-have-on-eu-climate-policy)
Mass Extinctions and Their Relationship With Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration: Implications for Earth’s Future Climate (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF003336)
Strong evidence shows Sixth Mass Extinction of global biodiversity in progress (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220113194911.htm)
Number of flood events by continent and decade since 1950 (https://www.grida.no/resources/6062)
Homeowners insurance in the future only with elemental protection module (https://www.gdv.de/gdv-en/topics/climate/homeowners-insurance-in-the-future-only-with-elemental-protection-module–88954)
U.S. Solar Energy Soars Despite Chinese Competition (https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/US-Solar-Energy-Soars-Despite-Chinese-Competition.html)
Commission supports European photovoltaic manufacturing sector with new European Solar Charter (https://energy.ec.europa.eu/news/commission-supports-european-photovoltaic-manufacturing-sector-new-european-solar-charter-2024-04-15_en)
IPCC Report: Carbon Removal is Now Required to Meet Climate Mitigation Targets(https://www.carbon-direct.com/insights/ipcc-report-carbon-removal-is-now-required-to-meet-climate-mitigation-targets)
Lake Nyos disaster (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos_disaster)
Stratospheric aerosol injection may impact global systems and human health outcomes
(https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/10/1/00047/195026/Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-may-impact-global)
Solar radiation modification(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_modification)
“This can be achieved by burning S 2 or H 2 S, carried into the strato-
sphere on balloons and by artillery guns to produce SO 2 . “(http://www.agriculturedefensecoalition.org/sites/default/files/file/geo_scheme_16/16YC_2006_Crutzen_SEPT_2_2006_Albedo_Enhancement_by_Stratospheric_Sulfur_Injections_Paul_Crutzen.pdf)
Blocking the Sun: Study Looks at Costs of 6 Geoengineering Schemes Planet hacking could be cost-effective, though risks are still unknown (https://spectrum.ieee.org/6-ways-to-block-the-sun-study-looks-at-costs-of-geoengineering-schemes)